The New Geography of Work

I hope you're doing well.  I read The Power of Geography by Tim Marshall in 2022, and it fundamentally shaped how I think about locations and long-term economic growth. One lesson stayed with me: geopolitics does not announce itself loudly—but it consistently shapes where capability evolves.

More recently, Jamie Dimon described geopolitics as the biggest unknown facing enterprises today—“a moving tectonic plate beneath the global economy.” That framing aligns closely with what we are seeing across talent markets.

As a result, we built this paper—The New Geography of Work—to examine how geopolitical forces are likely to reshape global talent hubs over the next five years.  We have referenced many published datasets in addition to the Draup datasets, and all these assets are well documented in the paper.  

Our analysis highlights several clear patterns from a geopolitical lens: (Full details are outlined in the attached paper)

• Tightened U.S. immigration policies may push companies toward home-grown talent reinvestment, accelerating hiring and reskilling across Middle America, the Midwest, and the U.S. South.
• Political and economic shifts in Venezuela may trigger renewed investment; however, with nearly half of Venezuelan talent already distributed across Latin America, the impact is more likely to be regional talent rebalancing rather than net-new supply.
• Mexico remains a critical nearshore extension of the U.S. operating perimeter. Brazil is emerging as a multi-axis resilience hub with an increasing emphasis on sovereignty.
• India continues to dominate as the Global Capability Center (GCC) hub. Despite tariff-related disruptions, services-led work remains largely unaffected, reinforcing India’s strategic position.
• Quiet supply-chain rewiring is underway across enterprises. Vietnam and India’s manufacturing hubs are positioned to benefit, even with U.S. tariffs still in play.
• Geopolitical pressures are driving AI self-sufficiency, leading to increased focus on Europe-centric foundational AI models and sovereign AI ecosystems.
• Germany and the UK remain high-quality talent hubs, supported by historically proactive migration strategies—although early signs of political and social backlash are emerging.
• Canada may benefit from redirected international student demand, as stricter U.S. student-visa scrutiny and shifting sentiment push talent flows northward.
• R&D investment across Europe is rising, which may not yield immediate returns but positions the region well for long-term innovation and depth of capability.
• Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Latvia, Romania, and Poland—are gaining traction as shared services and delivery hubs, driving localized demand growth.
• As AI optimizes human labor requirements, the next five years are likely to favor smaller, specialized talent hubs over continued concentration in mega-hubs.
• China is doubling down on homegrown AI models, aligning development closely with domestic demand; while Nvidia chip delivery tensions are partially resolved, structural friction remains.
• The UAE continues to attract engineering and medical talent from India, supported by strong bilateral ties, targeted visa reforms, and sustained demand across healthcare and infrastructure.
• Singapore continues to compound its advantage as a neutral, high-trust hub.
• Trusted governance hub with growing AI talent potential, supported by strong university ecosystems and curriculum depth.

The overarching conclusion is straightforward: Location strategy is no longer an optimization exercise—it is a portfolio design problem. The enterprises that perform best through 2026–2031 will be those that deliberately balance scale hubs, resilience hubs, and specialized micro-hubs as geopolitical and technological conditions evolve.

Happy to discuss how this applies to your talent needs