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In 2022, HR leaders are battling a scenario where having an unplanned workforce can push their organizations behind by years. A combination of weak supply chains, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty has shown talent leaders just how ill-equipped they are to meet the looming threat of severe talent shortages. To make matters worse, they do not have enough data to drive strategic workforce planning initiatives.
Workforce planning cannot be a mere function of Supply-Demand gap modeling but should be considered a vital process to develop next-generation workforces for unpredictable times.
Draup proposes a custom workforce planning model that considers key variables across three significant categories.
- Factors impacting the Demand Curve
- Factors impacting the Supply Curve
- Business Simulation
Understanding the Demand Curve
Staying on top of the potential demand for next-gen talent will assist in identifying the impact of digital initiatives on overall growth and efficiency at different levels.
As a first step in the workforce model, the demand profile graph mapping workloads to efficiency opportunities must be mapped as per your organization’s digital transformation initiatives.
Variables to consider would include:
- Expected Headcount Growth rates
- Expected Efficiency rates due to Automation
- Expected Efficiency rates due to Process Improvement & Reengineering
Staying Ahead of the Supply Curve
The next step would be to focus on the supply model parameters.
The supply would determine if the demand would be met successfully or do we need a plan of action for it. Some of the key variables to consider in this category would include:
- Headcount Assumptions
- Attrition Impact
- Supply/Demand Gap
- Geopolitical Risk Modeling
- Macro-Economic Risk Analysis
- Competitor Intensity (Hiring Difficulty)
Through careful considerations of internal movement and reskilling assumptions, the model will be able to produce net hiring requirements.
Simulating your Strategy
Once the demand and supply parts are taken care of, it’s time to simulate how your workforce planning strategy would play out under ‘real-world’ conditions.
Conducting simulation exercises like the World Bank did with EVOKE to predict “ten years of uncertainties” would help workforce planners prepare for unpredictable talent trends. The EVOKE simulation was a rich exercise driven by interviews and game theory to simulate business scenarios. Some of the questions to consider in a discussion would include:
- What projects do leaders think will become the company’s long-term revenue generators?
- What skills should be rapidly scaled?
- What is their viewpoint on expanding in different geographies?
- What type of questions do investors ask them about talent in board rooms?
We envision a survey-based simulation that can collect data from all the leaders in a digitally seamless manner. Depending on the outcome of such simulations, you can consider several factors for scenario modeling.
A well-designed and detailed workforce planning model will provide the required scenario planning abilities to battle the unforeseen talent movements ahead. Effective workforce planning would largely depend on forecasting for uncertainty along with workforce growth.
